Three parties have put migration settings before voters: the Labor package announced on 17 September 2026, the Coalition's rule tying migration to housing completions, and One Nation's package. This is a live model of what each does over the next three federal terms, to May 2034.
A complete system-dynamics model of net overseas migration, the labour market, growth and the international education sector - live in your browser, nothing to install. It starts from the model's state in October 2026 and runs to the end of May 2034, with a dash-dot line at the end of each federal term. Before it was allowed to look forward, the model was calibrated to 105 published series from 2018 to 2026 and checked against that record; the evidence is in the Narrative Report below. Thirty-one levers sit under headings, each party's package first. Fifteen presets set a whole configuration in one click, and two scenarios run side by side across twenty-five numbered charts. Start with a preset, then move one lever at a time.
Six documents accompany this demonstrator. If the higher education sector is your interest, start with the Higher Education Brief; for the model as a whole, start with the One-Pager. This model has its own Dashboard Guide, because it opens straight onto the forward view rather than the validation view the general iMORSE guide describes. The full suite - causal-loop structure, stock-and-flow formulation and the complete model specification - is available on request.
International education under three migration settings. What the model shows for the sector to May 2034 - commencements, allocation use under Ministerial Direction 115, tuition income and three example providers - and why each setting produces a different outcome.
What the simulator is, the levers you can move and the charts it reports. The fastest way in.
What the model is for, what to believe, and what it tells us about each party's settings.
A guided run of the simulator from its own numbers: the baseline, each party's settings, an A/B comparison and four experiments, step by step.
The complete written analysis: structure, evidence, the record against published data, findings and limits.
How to read and drive this forward-only dashboard - the election lines, the lever headings, the presets, the A/B comparison and how to look up what any line on a chart means. One page, worth reading before you open the simulator.
This is one of several worked demonstrators. Others cover different policies and different sectors, and more are added as they are built.
Back to the demonstrator libraryA short call will confirm whether system-dynamics foresight fits the question - and what it would take to calibrate a model to your organisation.